Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
